Free template · RevOps, CRM & metrics
Pipeline Forecast Model
A weighted-pipeline forecast: list your deals and see expected revenue by month against target.
What's inside
- Editable stages and win probabilities
- 200 deal rows with automatic weighted value
- A 6-month forecast: open, weighted, commit and closed-won
- Coverage and gap to target per month
Who it's for
Founders who need a forecast they can explain to the board.
Why it matters
Founders are often asked by their board or investors what revenue will close next quarter. Answering from the total value of open deals overstates the number, because early-stage deals close far less often than late-stage ones. Answering from gut feel is hard to defend. Either way, the forecast changes every time someone asks.
A weighted forecast applies a win probability to each deal based on its stage, then groups expected revenue by close month and compares it to target. Adding a commit category and a gap to target turns the forecast into a working tool: it shows which months need more pipeline and which deals deserve attention now.
How to use it
- 1Rename the stages on the Stages tab to match your CRM and set a win probability for each, treating the defaults as placeholders.
- 2On the Deals tab, add one row per open or recently closed deal with amount, expected close date, stage and forecast category.
- 3Set the forecast category honestly: mark a deal Commit only when the owner is confident it closes that month.
- 4On the Forecast tab, enter monthly revenue targets and review open, weighted, commit and closed-won values, coverage and gap for six months.
- 5Once you have closed 20 to 30 deals, replace the placeholder probabilities with your real win rates from each stage.
Read alongside it
- Sales forecasting for startups: a practical guide
- Pipeline coverage explained (the 3x rule and when it applies)
- Sales pipeline stages for B2B, explained
Pipeline Forecast Model: FAQ
- What is a weighted pipeline forecast?
- A weighted forecast multiplies each deal's amount by the probability of winning at its current stage, then adds the results. A $20,000 deal at a stage with a 50% win rate counts as $10,000. It gives a more realistic estimate than the raw total of open deals, though it is still an estimate.
- How do I set win probabilities for each sales stage?
- If you have little history, start with conservative placeholders that rise as deals move forward. After 20 to 30 closed deals, calculate what share of deals that reached each stage went on to close, and use those numbers. Review them every quarter as your process and market change.
- What is the difference between commit, best case and pipeline?
- These are forecast categories set by the deal owner. Commit means they are confident the deal closes in the month. Best case means it could close if things go well. Pipeline covers everything else that is open. Tracking commit separately from weighted value helps you test the model against the owner's judgment.
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